Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Changes in Future Artificial Light Pollution and Projections Until 2029 and 2041: A Case Study in the Brazilian States of Roraima, Amazonas, Acre, and Rondônia

This study presents an integrated spatial and temporal analysis of night sky brightness transitions, classified into Bortle classes using the MOLUSCE plugin. Future projections for 2029 and 2041 were generated based on remote sensing data from 2017 and 2020. The results indicate that the “Excellent Sky” and “Typical Dark Sky” classes may decrease by 100% and 56%, respectively, while the “Rural Sky” class could lose approximately 284,679 km2. In contrast, the “Rural-suburban Transition” class is projected to grow by 73%, with smaller increases in the “Suburban”, “Bright Suburban”, “Suburban/urban Transition”, and “Urban Center” classes. The “Urban Center” class shows a steady growth rate of 0.004%. These trends suggest a continued spread of light pollution into rural areas. The results provide valuable input for national and local authorities to anticipate future light-pollution patterns and develop effective mitigation strategies. © 2025 Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.