Scenario-based optimization of humanitarian supply chain distribution channels for a possible earthquake: a case study in Türkiye

Earthquakes represent a serious risk to societies, economies, and critical infrastructure, highlighting the need for effective disaster preparedness and resilient humanitarian supply chains (HSCs). In seismically active regions such as Erzincan Province, Türkiye, HSC distribution networks must remain functional despite significant disruptions. This study proposes a five-stage mixed-method framework to design and optimize HSC distribution channels for a potential major earthquake in the central district of Erzincan. First, buildings and transportation links were evaluated in terms of seismic suitability to pre-select candidate main distribution centers (MDCs), local distribution points (LDPs), and low-risk routes. Proximity analyses were then conducted using Quantum GIS (QGIS) to identify potential LDPs within a 1–5 km service radius for 69 neighborhoods. These locations were further validated and optimized using Greenfield analyses in anyLogistix under a distance–demand cost minimization criterion. Four distribution channel scenarios were subsequently simulated over a two-month post-earthquake period in line with national and international disaster standards. Finally, the Shortest Path Method was applied to assign primary, secondary, and tertiary LDPs to each neighborhood. The results indicate that supplying nine LDPs (comprising schools and healthcare centers) through four MDCs, including a newly designated sports facility, minimizes transportation cost, travel distance, and lead time, while enabling 63.8% of neighborhoods to access their primary LDP within 3 km. The proposed framework offers a holistic approach by explicitly incorporating seismic compliance into the design of HSC distribution channels in earthquake-prone regions. © The Author(s) 2026.