Physically constrained air–sea heat flux driven modeling of sea surface temperature using atmospheric and oceanographic variables with explainable AI

This study aims to develop a robust multivariate regression framework for accurately predicting monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) using a core set of ten primary atmospheric and oceanographic variables, including relative humidity, specific humidity, temperature, mean square slope of waves, mean wave direction, 2-meter air temperature, top net solar radiation, total precipitation, mean evaporation rate, and potential evaporation. The originality of this research lies in the simultaneous integration of meteorological and oceanographic parameters into multiple machine learning architectures, coupled with a detailed interpretability analysis using SHAP values, which provide a comprehensive understanding of the influence of variables on SST prediction. The dataset was split into 60 % for training, 20 % for testing, and 20 % for validation. Four machine learning models: Random Forest, CatBoost, one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine were optimized using RandomizedSearchCV, with MinMaxScaler applied to ensure consistent feature scaling across models. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Coefficient of Determination, and Explained Variance metrics. Meanwhile, SHAP analysis identified the most influential features as 2-meter air temperature, mean evaporation rate, mean square slope of waves, air temperature, and specific humidity. Results revealed that the Support Vector Machine achieved the highest accuracy overall, followed by CatBoost, confirming that combining meteorological and oceanographic predictors significantly enhances SST forecasting performance. The physical consistency analyses, supported by the bulk air–sea heat flux formulations for sensible and latent heat fluxes, confirm that the machine-learning model’s most influential predictors: near-surface air temperature, specific humidity, and evaporation-related variables are fully consistent with the fundamental thermodynamic controls governing SST. This research not only advances SST prediction accuracy but also provides a transparent interpretability framework, making it a valuable reference for climate modeling, marine resource management, and environmental monitoring applications. © 2026 The Authors.