Analyzing the trend and change point in various meteorological variables in Bursa with various statistical and graphical methods

Determining the trend in meteorological variables is vital in water resources planning, energy production, and the design of water structures. This study analyzed trends and years of change in seasonal and annual average, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum precipitation, average relative humidity, average wind speed, and sunshine duration values in Bursa. Innovative-Şen trend analysis was used to determine the trends, and the sequential Mann–Kendall method, standard normal homogeneity test, and Pettitt test were used to determine the year of change. In addition, meteorological variables were divided into three ranges as low, medium, and high, and the trends in these ranges were analyzed graphically with the ITA approach. The ITA tests showed statistically significant increases in average, minimum, and maximum temperatures and average wind speed in seasonal and annual periods. On the other hand, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed in the mean relative humidity and sum sunshine duration values in seasonal and annual periods. In addition, significant decreasing trends were observed in the 95% confidence interval in the summer and annual periods in the maximum precipitation values. According to the sequential Mann–Kendall method, there were changes in temperature values in 1995 and 2015, wind speed values in 1946, relative humidity values in 1975 and 1977, and sunshine duration values around 1996. This study’s outputs significantly contribute to planners and decision-makers in terms of managing water resources, drought, and flood risk, developing adaptation strategies against climate change and agricultural irrigation and crop production. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature.