Global Pistachio Production Forecasts for 2020-2025

Using 59 years of pistachio production data between 1961 and 2019, the production data of the leading countries in the 2020-2025 periods were tried to be predicted with the help of the ARIMA time series model. ARIMA (p, d, q) analysis model has been used by obtaining 59 years of production data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In addition, the data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), FAO, and the International Trade Centre (ITC) were also used in the comparison of production, export, and import per capita. In the study, the world production data for the period of 2020-2025 were to be estimated with the data between 1961-2019. As a result of the findings obtained, according to the data obtained in the world, Iran, USA, Turkey, China, and Syria, an increase in production is foreseen in all countries and the world where studies are carried out in pistachio production. While the share of the five countries, which are the leaders in Pistachio production between 1961 and 2019, in the total world production is 97.99%, the share of Pistachio production between 2020-2025 in the total production is expected to be 97.51%. While the share of Iran and Syria from these five countries in world production will decrease, the share of the USA, Turkey, and China will increase. The two leading countries in pistachio exports are Iran and the USA. The fact that Germany, which does not influence production, has a significant share in both exports and imports brings to mind the derivative demand situation. Turkey, Iran, and Syria can create a better marketing strategy by reducing imports to Germany and increasing exports to European Union countries.