Landslide Susceptibility Analysis of Kara Dere Basin (Erzincan) Using Analytical Hierarchy Process Method

Landslides, as one of the primary natural hazards, are significant mass movements that cause considerable casualties and property damage. The objective of this study is to perform a landslide susceptibility analysis of the Kara Dere Basin, located in the northwest of the Erzincan Plain, and to spatially delineate potential risk areas. In this research, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology were utilized. Within the scope of the model, eleven different landslide-conditioning parameters were evaluated: slope, precipitation, lithology, NDVI, slope curvature, distance to streams, land use, elevation, great soil groups, aspect, and distance to roads. As a result of the weighting process applied via the AHP method, slope (25.10%) and precipitation (19.20%) were identified as the most influential factors in landslide occurrence. For the validation of the susceptibility map produced, the historical landslide inventory in the study area was randomly partitioned, utilizing 70% as training data and 30% as independent testing data. The validation procedure, performed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) technique, yielded an AUC value of 0.799, demonstrating that the model possesses a scientifically acceptable and reliable predictive capacity. According to the spatial analysis results, it was determined that 43% of the basin consists of high and very high-risk areas, 34% of moderate-risk areas, and 23% of low and very low-risk areas. The most susceptible regions were identified as the high-gradient terrains in the north and northeast of the basin. Furthermore, while certain sections of the Erzincan-Kelkit highway were observed to be located in high-risk zones, it was verified that the Ahmetli Village disaster housing, constructed following a historical landslide event, is appropriately situated in a low-risk area. It is anticipated that the resulting susceptibility map will serve as a crucial scientific baseline for future regional and spatial planning, as well as disaster risk management strategies.