Davron, Dekhkonov; Temur, Asatulloev; Umida, Tojiboeva; Sari, Idris; Shoxida, Abdupattaeva; Shuxrat, Abdullayev; Weibang, Sun; Ziyoviddin, Yusupov; Komiljon, Tojibaev Sh.

Tulipa (Liliaceae) is a well-known ornamental plant that supports a horticultural trade worth over a billion euros. Existing research highlights the expanding array of risks faced by Tulipa species, with climate change emerging as a significant and escalating threat. However, the fate of phytogeographically restricted red-flowering species of tulips in the Pamir-Alay mountain system is crucial, as they are also harvested by local people or visitors purely for their ornamental attractiveness. To study this, 41 bioclimatic and ecologic variables were utilized in the investigation. The suitable areas for T. ingens are expected to increase nearly twofold, while for T. affinis and T. carinata, they will remain constant. However, suitable habitats for T. tubergeniana are projected to decrease considerably. Surprisingly, the western Tian-Shan, where these species are not native, was highlighted as climatically suitable and may be an important area for translocation efforts in the future for T. affinis, T. carinata, and T. ingens. We also identified protected areas that could provide suitable habitats for these species. Additionally, we recommend creating living collections of T. tubergeniana, given the significant decrease in suitable habitat. Ultimately, relocating these species to protected regions with projected suitable habitats plays a crucial role in supporting their survival.

Davron, Dekhkonov; Temur, Asatulloev; Umida, Tojiboeva; Sari, Idris; Komiljon, Tojibaev Sh.

Tulipa (Liliaceae) is cultivated as an ornamental plant worldwide and its wild representatives hold valuable genetic resources for breeders are facing the effects of climate change in Central Asia like all of wild plant species. Therefore, the effects of climate change on two Central Asian species (T. korolkowii Regel and T. lehmanniana Mercklin) plus the current suitable habitat for two endemics (T. intermedia Tojibaev and J.J. de Groot, T. scharipovii Tojibaev) to Uzbekistan and one endemic (T. ferganica Vved.) to Ferghana Valley were investigated in the study. Because endemic species are valuable for any territory, we cannot trust a limited number of variables that are commonly used for modeling distribution of species. For that, 41 bioclimatic and ecologic variables were utilized in the investigation. The results showed that T. lehmanniana is a species most affected by climate change, while T. korolkowii appears low necessity for its conservation action. Tulipa ferganica mainly grows in some protected areas of Kyrgyzstan which cannot provide protection against climate change and this may help to mitigate its extinction caused by human-driven disturbance. Thus, the conservation implications of these results are discussed.