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- ArticleAçık Erişim2025Predictive Modeling of Urban Travel Demand Using Neural Networks and Regression Analysis
Çolak, Muhammed Ali; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal
Urban transportation systems are increasingly strained by population growth, changing mobility patterns, and the need for sustainable infrastructure planning. The accurate modeling of urban trip generation is critical for effective and sustainable transportation planning, especially in the context of rapidly growing urban populations and evolving travel behaviors. This study investigated the application of advanced statistical methods and artificial intelligence-based techniques for forecasting urban travel demand. Erzincan, with a population of approximately 200,000, serves as a representative mid-sized city, offering valuable insights for transportation planning and traffic management. Data collected from various user groups, including households and university students, provide a comprehensive understanding of local travel behavior. Four predictive modeling techniques, linear regression, Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), were applied to the dataset, followed by a comparative performance evaluation. Additionally, a macro-level simulation was conducted using VISUM (Release 18.2.22) software to evaluate the current transportation network and assess the potential impacts of proposed improvement scenarios. The results show that the ANN model provided the highest predictive accuracy for household-based data (R2 = 0.62), while the linear regression model yielded the best results for dormitory-based data (R2 = 0.95). Furthermore, Poisson regression proved most effective in estimating the minimum trip generation time, which was estimated to be 22.77 min under simulated conditions. The study offers practical insights for transport planners and policymakers by demonstrating how predictive analytics and simulation tools can be integrated to address urban mobility challenges.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2024Experimental investigation on mechanical properties of sustainable roller compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) containing waste rubbers as alternative aggregates
Keleş, Ömer Faruk; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Bayata, Halim Ferit
Different types of solid waste are generated every year due to global industrialization. With the rapid growth of the automobile industry, the disposal of billions of waste rubbers (WR), which pollute the environment and cannot be disposed of properly, is emerging as an urgent matter of concern. Recycling waste rubbers by using them on pavements will contribute to the elimination of ecological and economic problems. In this study, the effects of waste rubbers on the mechanical properties of roller-compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) were investigated by obtaining sustainable RCCP mixtures using different types of waste rubbers as coarse and fine aggregate substitutes. In this context, waste rubbers with three different sizes (powder, crumb and shredded) were substituted for aggregate by volume at seven levels (0%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 20% and 30%) with a maximum of 30% in RCC mixtures. Unit weight, mechanical properties, modulus of elasticity and ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) were evaluated and compared according to the waste rubber content in the RCC mixtures. In addition, microstructural analysis of the mixtures was performed through scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The experimental results revealed that the compressive, flexural and splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity decreased with increasing waste rubber content in RCC. The utilization of waste rubber increased the ductility of RCC and decreased the density to produce lighter concrete. RCC with a compressive strength of about 30 MPa could be obtained by substituting 10% of waste rubber for aggregate. Thus, the utilization of high waste rubber content in pavements was feasible. This study can contribute to a more sustainable RCCP production by replacing natural aggregates with waste rubbers.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2024Investigating the usability of kevlar and steel fibers as a hybrid in concrete pavements
Mola, Erhan; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Baş, Fatih İrfan; Bayata, Halim Ferit
In this study, the hybrid usage of Kevlar and steel fiber in concrete pavements was investigated. For this purpose, the concrete was designed using the water/binder ratio (0.40, 0.45, 0.50), silica fume (instead of cement 0, 5, 10%), Kevlar fiber (0 gr/m3, 500 gr/m3, 1000 gr/m3) and steel fiber (0 gr/m3, 500 gr/m3, 1000 gr/m3). Taguchi method was used as the experimental design, and optimum levels of parameters were determined for 28-days compressive strength, flexural strength, and toughness. According to the experiments and observations, the positive effect of Kevlar fiber upon energy absorption capacity (toughness), compressive and flexural strength of concrete was determined. Using only Kevlar fiber increasing up to 5.1% in compressive strength and up to 14.5% in flexural strength were observed. Considering the obtained results, Kevlar was noticed as a possible recycling material to be introduced into the economy by adding concrete.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2022A Practical Design Guide for Unbonded Jointed Plain Concrete Roads over Deteriorated HMA Roads: Realistic Traffic Loading
Baş, Fatih İrfan; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Bayata, Halim Ferit
This study aimed to determine the material properties and the thickness of the layers of an unbonded jointed plain concrete pavement design over a deteriorated flexible pavement that lost its service capability. Maximum principal stresses occurring under the concrete pavement should not exceed the modulus of rupture of the concrete. Three-dimensional finite element analyses using ANSYS (Release 18.1 SAS IP, Inc.) software were carried out with the Taguchi method. The most reliable solution for the pavement design was investigated with whole configuration axle loading that reflects the realistic traffic situation. The stress values under the concrete slab due to the positive temperature gradient neglected in the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) method were also investigated. The concrete slabs are exposed to these stresses for longer than the axle loads. Temperature distributions throughout the thickness of the concrete slab were calculated with the bilinear formulas suggested in the study. Axle loadings were applied on both the pavement edge and corner to reflect the most critical loading condition in the pavement design. The critical axle type was found to be 1.2. It was observed that a 0.15 m concrete thickness was appropriate for the concrete class, joint spacing and hot mix asphalt (HMA) elasticity modulus levels used for the 1.22, 1.122, and 1.2 + 111 axle types, but it was not appropriate for the 1.2 axle types. The slab thicknesses calculated with the AASHTO method, and the finite element method were found to be close to each other. It was determined that the concrete thickness significantly affected the maximum principal stress, with a performance statistic (S/N) value of 1692 for the 1.2 axle type. This was followed by the modulus of elasticity of the concrete with an S/N value of 0.356, the modulus of elasticity of the existing flexible pavement with an S/N value of 0.244, and the concrete joint spacing with an S/N value of 0.105. A practical design guide was recommended to extend the service life of a highly deteriorated flexible pavement with the construction of unbonded jointed plain concrete.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2021Evaluation of 112 emergency calls of erzincan with geographical ınformation systems and modeling with different statistical analysis methods
Bayata, Halim Ferit; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Gürel, Mehmet Oğuzhan
The location of the emergency stations should be arranged at regular intervals in order to avoid the difficulties that emergency vehicles can reach the specified distances in the shortest time. Recent studies show that geographic information systems (GIS) based analysis is an effective tool for locating. As the literature was reviewed, it was seen that detecting the station settlement location was carried with GIS in some provinces in Turkey. In this study, it was aimed to use time series and artificial neural networks to modelling of calls and the geographic information systems to determine the coverage of the existing station locations based on the calls received by Erzincan Merkez 112 emergency health stations. The current research covers the Erzincan center and the data were obtained from 112 Centers. SPSS package program, matlab program and ArcGIS program were used to analyze the data. In order to use the data in ArcGIS, basic geographical data (map) bases have been created. Then, the data were digitized in the same coordinate system and transferred to the ArcGIS program. As a result of the research, considering the coverage areas of the stations, it is concluded that the existing 112 stations are located in the appropriate location. increase in the emergency calls received in the future. Therefore, it is recommended that the analysis be repeated at regular intervals.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2021Corridor capacity analysis with mesoscopic simulation: Erzincan province sample
Demİrİz, Ahmet Oğuz; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Bayata, Halİm Ferİt
Today, the existing traffic networks cannot cope-up with the increasing transportation demands and traffic volume and fail to meet the demands. This causes economic and social losses. Increasing transportation demands and traffic volume in Erzincan city center of Turkey cause the main arteries and junctions to be insufficient. In such problems, solutions are generally produced using parameters such as trip and delay durations and exhaust emissions. Another point to be considered is to ensure the improved intersections to work as a whole. In this study, the main arteries and the junctions on these in Erzincan city center were discussed. In this context, totally 14 intersections were tried to be improved. Suggestions were offered regarding delay time, travel time, queue lengths, NOx and CO2 emissions, and average speed values as the design criteria. Simulations were made in AIMSUN program for the current situation and four different scenarios. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is one of the multi-criteria decision-making methods for the network was employed to determine which scenario was more appropriate. At the end of the study, decrease of up to 23% for travel time, 47% for delays, 48% for queue lengths, 11% for NOx, and 13% for CO2 and increase of up to 30% in average speed were obtained. According to AHP, Scenario 4 had the highest priority value among all alternatives. Moreover, the reliability of the results was ensured by supporting the mesoscopic simulation with AHP which is a multi-criteria decision-making method.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2020Investigation of the Usability of Waste Kevlars in Concrete Road Pavements
Bayata, Halim Ferit; Tunçel, Mustafa Uraz; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Bas, Fatih Irfan
At the present time, fiber optic cables are generally used in the communication sector. In our country, there are 324 thousand km of fiber cables including only 256 thousand km in Turk Telekom operators and 68 thousand km in other operators. These cables, which have a service life of 20 years, need to be renewed over time and the cables that are out of use are scrapped. An average of 15,000 km of cable is scrapped annually. Approximately 5 Kg of kevlars become waste in 1 km length cable. Since waste kevlars do not have a separate usage area, they cannot be recycled to the economy. In this study, the usability of the concrete produced with kevlar on the road superstructure was investigated. For this purpose, water / binder ratio (0.40, 0.45, 0.50), silica fume (%0, 5, 10 instead of cement), kevlar (0 gr / m3, 500 gr / m3, 1000 gr / m3) and polypropylene fiber (0 gr / m3, 500 gr / m3, 1000 gr / m3) are determined as mixture variables. According to the full factorial experiment design, 3 x 34 = 243 samples must be poured for each of the compressive strength, rupture modulus and elasticity modulus tests. In the case of a grand total, 729 samples are required if a full factorial experiment design is applied. For this reason, Taguchi method was used for the experimental design and optimum mixture variables that gave 28 days of flexural and compressive strength were determined by the modulus of elasticity. Considering the factor and number of the levels, the $L_9$ orthogonal array was chosen as the experimental design and the study to be performed with a total of 3x9x3 = 81 samples and 729 samples was represented. From the results of the experiment, it has been observed that Kevlar material has positive effects on the compressive, flexural and elasticity modulus values added up to 500 g / m3 in the concrete. Since polypropylene fiber and kevlar were tested together in the experiments, it is predicted that this rate will increase only in the use of kevlar. From the results, it was observed that Kevlar which is a waste material can be brought to the economy by adding to the concrete.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2020Kentiçi Kavşakların Mikrosimülasyon Yöntemiyle Modellenmesi: Erzurum İli Örneği
Bayata, Halim Ferit; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Bas, Fatih Irfan; Çolak, Muhammed Ali; Demiriz, Ahmet Oğuz; Keleş, Ömer Faruk; Mazlum, Yusuf; Gürel, Mehmet Oğuzhan; Demircioglu, Muhammed Sami
Gelişen teknolojiye bağlı olarak dünya genelinde olduğu gibi Erzurum il merkezinde de araç sayısında artış meydana gelmiş veErzurum kent içi ana arter ve ana arterleri üzerinde bulunan kavşaklarda trafik hacminin artmasına sebep olmuştur. Erzurum’da sonbeş yılda motorlu taşıt sayısı 16.762 artarak 119.108’e ulaşmıştır. Artan trafik hacmi özellikle şehrin en merkezi kavşağı konumundaolan Tebrizkapı Kavşağı’nı etkilemiştir. Tebrizkapı Kavşağı kentin en işlek merkezi olan Cumhuriyet Caddesi, Karskapı Caddesi veen önemli alışveriş merkezlerinden biri olan Taş Mağazalar Caddesi arasında kaldığından özellikle sabah mesai başlangıç saatleri veakşam mesai bitim saatlerinde ciddi trafik yoğunluklarına maruz kalmaktadır. Sayım sonuçları doğrultusunda Tebrizkapı Kavşağı’ndasabah zirve saati 07:45 ile 08:45 ve akşam zirve saati 16:45 ile 17:45 arasında olduğu belirlenmiş ve simülasyon yapılırken yoğunlukolan zirve saatlerin trafik hacimleri alınmıştır.Bu çalışmada, AIMSUN yazılımı kullanılarak Tebrizkapı Kavşağı’nın mevcut durum ve farklı kavşak tipleri ile tasarımlarıMikrosimülasyon ile simüle edilmiştir. Üretilen modellerin doğruluğunu ölçmek için trafik hacimleri üzerinde doğrulama testi olarakkullanılan GEH (Geoffrey E. Havers) formülünden faydalanılmıştır. Mevcut durumdaki gecikme süresi 41,10 saniye ve beklemesüresi 26,85 saniye olarak bulunmuştur. Mevcut durumdaki kavşak tipi değiştirilerek Modern Dönel Kavşak ve Farklı Düzey Kavşaktasarlanarak simülasyonları yapılmıştır. Yeni yapılan tasarımların gecikme süreleri Modern Dönel kavşak için 9,21 saniye, FarklıDüzey Kavşak için 5,03 saniye, bekleme süreleri ise Modern Dönel Kavşak için 1,66 saniye ve Farklı Düzey Kavşak için 1,20 saniyeolarak bulunmuştur. Simülasyonlar sonucunda gecikme süresi ve bekleme süresi faktörleri dikkate alınarak en uygun kavşak tipiFarklı Düzey Kavşak olarak bulunmasına rağmen yapım maliyetinin çok yüksek olmasından dolayı Modern Dönel Kavşak yapılmasıen uygun seçim olarak belirlenmiştir.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2020Evaluation of 110 Emergency Calls of Erzincan with Geographical Information Systems and Modeling with Different Statistical Analysis Methods
Bayata, Halim Ferit; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Gürel, Mehmet Oğuzhan
The most important criterion for 110 emergency call is the time, which is between the arrival of the teams at the event location after the emergency call and the initiation of emergency response; and called as “response time”. One of the most important problems affecting the intervention time is the problems arising from the station settlement. Today, advanced information technologies and imaging methods are widely used in the determination of the station settlement area. One of the methods used for this purpose is "Geographic Information Systems" (GIS). In the literature, various station settlement determination process in Turkey have been seen in the CBS. In this study, it is aimed to use time series and artificial neural networks to model the geographic information systems and calls to determine the coverage of the existing station locations based on the calls received by the 110 fire stations in Erzincan city center. The current research covers the neighborhoods of Erzincan center and the data were taken from the Erzincan Municipality Fire Department. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) package program, MATLAB program and ArcGIS program were used to analyze the data. In order to query the data in ArcGIS, basic geographical data (map) bases were created. Then, the data were digitized in the same coordinate system and transferred to the ArcGIS program. At the end of the research, the most appropriate the fire station were recommended with the locational analysis functions of GIS.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2020Multi-criteria decision-based safety evaluation using microsimulation
Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Bayata, Halim Ferit
The choice of intersection type in a road network is one of the most important decisions to be made in transportation engineering. Capacity and level of service are the two main factors considered in the type of intersection design, but safety and economy should also be taken into account when determining the intersection type since these are equally important. A number of parameters can be used to evaluate the performance of an intersection, including travel time, average delay, queue length, fuel consumption and vehicle exhaust emissions. Adding safety and construction costs to these parameters makes decision-making more difficult. In this study, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a multi-criteria decision approach to overcome this problem. Three intersection types were modelled and tested using Vissim software in line with the above parameters. An AHP model was then generated using the Vissim results and the AHP results and applicability were analysed.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2019SIFCON ile Üretilen Beton Yolların Bazı Mekanik Özelliklerinin Optimizasyonu
Bayata, Halim Ferit; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal; Bingöl, Muhammed Ziya
Son zamanlarda geliştirilen kompozit bir malzeme olan çimento bulamacı emdirilmiş lifli beton (SIFCON), inşaat mühendisliği alanında çok popüler malzemelerden biri olmuştur. Yüksek dayanımlı betonlardan en önemli farkı kırılma sırasında sünek davranış göstermesidir. Bu çalışmada SIFCON'un rijit kaplama olarak kullanımı araştırılmıştır. Deneyler, L16 ortogonal dizi tekniği kullanılarak her biri dört seviyeli dört faktör ile tasarlanmıştır. Faktörler ve seviyeleri 40, 55, 65, 80 lif görünüm oranı, %3, %6, %9, %12 lif hacmi, 0,30, 0,35, 0,40, 0,45 su/çimento oranı ve %0, %5, %10, %15 silis dumanı oranıdır. Deney sonuçları Taguchi yöntemi ile varyans analizi (ANOVA) tekniği kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. ANOVA'ya göre, beton kaplamaların basınç ve eğilme mukavemetinde en önemli rolü lif görünüm oranı (L/d) oynamıştır. Ayrıca basınç mukavemeti için optimum koşullar 55 (L/d), %3 lif oranı, 0.45 su / bağlayıcı oranı ve %5 SD oranı, eğilme mukavemeti için 80 L/d, %12 lif oranı, 0.45 su / bağlayıcı oranı ve %5 SD oranı olarak bulunmuştur. Optimum koşullarda 145.72 MPa ve 31.58 MPa'lık maksimum basınç ve eğilme dayanımı elde edilmiştir.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2018Yeni Yapılması Planlanan bir Kavşağın Mikro-Simülasyon ile Değerlendirilmesi
Bayata, Halim Ferit; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal
Erzurum’da trafiğe kayıtlı araç sayısı 2017 yılı (TUİK) verilerine göre, 114.044’tür. Erzurum, Doğu AnadoluBölgesinin en büyük şehirlerinden biridir. Aynı zamanda, bölgenin cazibe merkezlerinden biri olduğu için, araçsayısındaki mevsimsel artış% 17.61'dir. Bu sayı her yıl ortalama %2,8 artmasına rağmen, mevcut yollarınkapasiteleri sabit kalmaktadır. Bu sonuç, yolların yetersiz kalmasına neden olmakta, trafik yoğunluğununartmasıyla birlikte, seyahat süresi, gecikme ve egzoz emisyonlarının artmasını da beraberinde getirmektedir.Buna ek olarak, yapılan araştırmalar, Türkiye’de şehir merkezlerinde meydana gelen trafik kazalarının yaklaşık%52’sinin kavşaklarda meydana geldiğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, Karayolları 12. Bölge Müdürlüğütarafından yapılması planlanan bir kavşağın çevre ve bölge trafiğine etkisi araştırılmıştır. Yapılması düşünülenkavşak, Erzurum-Bingöl devlet yolu üzerinde ve Atatürk Üniversitesi Kampüsünü bu yola bağlayan noktaüzerindedir. Mevcut ve yeni durum, VISSIM mikro-simülasyon programı ile modellenmiş ve seyahat süresi,gecikme, kuyruk uzunlukları ile CO, NOx, VOC ve yakıt tüketimleri karşılaştırılmıştır. Mikro-simülasyonanaliz sonuçlarına göre, seyahat süresi ve gecikmelerde %35, kuyruk uzunluklarında %83, egzozemisyonlarında ise yaklaşık %23’e varan oranlarda azalma gözlenmiştir.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2018Demiryolları Yolcularının Tutum ve Davranışlarının Farklı İstatistiksel Yöntemler ile Modellenmesi
Bayata, Halim Ferit; Sağlamyürek, Hacer Nur; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal
Ülkemizde son yıllarda gelişim gösteren en önemli sektörlerden biri de ulaşım sistemleri olmuştur. Diğerulaşım sistemlerine göre daha fazla olan yük ve yolcu kapasiteleri, demiryollarının önümüzdeki yüzyılda stratejikönemini artıracaktır. Tarihi İpek Yolu’nun (Pekin-Londra) tekrar hayata geçerek Bakü-Tiflis-Kars demiryolununaçılmış olması, bu ulaşım sınıfının ülkemizde ve uluslararası platformdaki jeopolitik önemini artırmıştır. Buçalışmada, demiryolu bağlantı yollarının kesiştiği sekiz farklı ilde (Erzincan, Elazığ, Erzurum, Eskişehir, Kocaeli,İstanbul, Ankara, Sivas) 515 yolcu anketi yapılmıştır. Bu anketler, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Devlet Demiryollarını(TCDD) kullanan yolcuların demiryolu hizmetlerinden faydalanırken beklentilerinin ve memnuniyet derecelerinintespiti için yapılmıştır. Bunun tespit edilmesi amacıyla çok kriterli karar verme yöntemlerinden biri olanAnalitik Hiyerarşik Proses (AHP) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın ikinci kısmında ise yolcuların tercih,tutum ve memnuniyet derecelerine göre demiryolu seyahat sıklığı talep modellemesi Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA),Çok Değişkenli Regresyon (ÇDR) ve Bulanık Mantık (Fuzzy Logic-BM) yöntemleri yardımıyla modellenmiş,karşılaştırılmış ve yorumlanmıştır. AHP ile yapılan değerlendirmeler neticesinde, TCDD hizmetlerini kullananyolcular için hizmetlerin genellikle yeterli olduğu, hizmet düzeyinin iyileştirmeden ziyade stabil olarak kalmasınınuygun olacağı belirlenmiştir. YSA ve ÇDR ile modellemelere göre istatistiksel olarak YSA’nın daha başarılı biryöntem olduğu belirlenmiştir. BM ile yapılan modellemede ise yolcuların üç ayda bir seyahat ettikleri anlaşılmışolup, tercih, önem ve memnuniyet tutumları değiştikçe seyahat sıklığının değiştiği görülmüştür.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2016Mikrosimülasyon Kullanılarak Bir Kavşağın Trafik Yönetim Ölçümlerinin Değerlendirilmesi
Hattatoğlu, Fatih; Çolak, Muhammet Ali; Bayata, Halim Ferit; Bayrak, Osman Ünsal
Trafik yönetiminde ele alınan iki ana amaç sinyalize olmayan kavşaklardaki trafik güvenliği ve yolculuk verimliliğidir. Mikroskopik simülasyonlar ulaşım projelerinde ve yönetiminde yaygın bir şekilde kullanılmaktadırlar çünkü simülasyon güvenlidir daha ekonomiktir ve arazi uygulama ve denemelerinden daha hızlıdır. Bu çalışmada Atatürk Üniversitesi Kampüsündeki en yoğun trafik hacmine sahip ve yıllık ortalama 15 kazanın olduğu Teknokent Kavşağı incelenmiştir. Araziden elde edilen ölçümler VISSIM programı ile simüle edilmiştir. Farklı sinyal programları ve geometrik düzenlemeler önerilmiş ve uygulanmıştır. Uygulamalardan sonra ilgili kavşakta 1,5 yıldır herhangi bir kaza olmamıştır. Önerilen ve uygulanan sağa dönüş adaları kollardaki gecikmeleri minimize etmiştir
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