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- ArticleAçık Erişim2026National-Scale Estimation of Brake-Wear Particulate Emissions From On-Road Vehicles in Türkiye: A 2024 Inventory with Uncertainty and Mitigation Scenarios
Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat
This research article develops a screening-level national inventory of airborne brake-wear particulate emissions from on-road vehicles in Türkiye for the year 2024. The scope is limited to brake wear only and does not include tyre wear, road wear, resuspension, or concentration and exposure modelling. The inventory combines TurkStat vehicle-kilometre statistics with EMEP/EEA Tier-2 brake-wear emission factors, including passenger-car powertrain differentiation to reflect regenerative-braking effects. Under nominal baseline assumptions, annual emissions are estimated at 5.67 kt•y-1 for PM10 and 2.26 kt•y-1 for PM2.5. Monte Carlo framework that propagates bounded uncertainty in total activity, vehicle-category composition, passenger-car powertrain shares, guidebook-anchored emission factors, and particle-size fractions, the national totals are characterised by a median (95% interval) of 5.67 (4.87-7.19) kt•y-1 for PM10 and 2.26 (1.87-2.90) kt•y-1 for PM2.5 Passenger cars account for approximately 45% of national PM10 emissions, followed by light commercial vehicles and tractor units. Illustrative, assumptiondependent scenario analysis indicates that PM10 could decrease to 4.95 kt•y-1 under partial uptake of low-emission brake technologies, to 5.28 kt•y-1 with greater use of auxiliary braking in heavy-duty vehicles, and to 5.47 kt•y-1 under a passenger-car fleet share of 10% HEV and 10% BEV. These scenario outcomes should be interpreted as indicative screening-level projections rather than empirical or policyevaluation results. Overall, the study provides a transparent brake-wear-only national baseline and a comparative framework for examining how selected assumptions influence estimated PM emissions in Türkiye.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2026Model-Based Exergy and Partial Techno-Economic Screening of Hydrogen, Ammonia, E-Diesel, and Waste Cooking Oil Biodiesel Pathways for Heavy-Duty Internal Combustion Engines
Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat
Five pathways—diesel, renewable hydrogen, green ammonia, Fischer–Tropsch e-diesel, and B100 waste cooking oil fatty acid methyl ester (WCO-FAME)—were compared on a common service basis using a reduced-order engine exergy model, a partial techno-economic cost model, and 10,000 Latin hypercube simulation samples; each alternative was paired with diesel by sample index. The results were normalised to 1 kWh of net brake work (kWhb) and 1000 tonne-kilometres of freight work (1000 tkm). A carbon balance back-calculation from European Commission Vehicle Energy Consumption Calculation Tool (VECTO) monitoring data for subgroup 5-Long Haul (5-LH; a 4 × 2 tractor–semitrailer) yielded 89.31 kWhb/1000 tkm; first-order payload penalties increased this requirement to 94.79 kWhb/1000 tkm for hydrogen and 91.97 kWhb/1000 tkm for ammonia. Deterministic central-case exergy efficiencies were 43.02% for hydrogen, 39.67% for e-diesel, 39.35% for diesel, 37.56% for B100, and 33.81% for ammonia. The study-specific partial cost was expressed in 2025 EUR per 1000 tkm and included delivered fuel, maintenance, and annualised incremental vehicle capital; common fleet costs, including driver, tyre, toll, insurance, and tax costs, and externalities were excluded. Therefore, this metric was not a full freight cost or tariff. Deterministic central-case costs were EUR 25.85/1000 tkm for diesel, EUR 26.72/1000 tkm for B100, EUR 58.64/1000 tkm for hydrogen, EUR 59.84/1000 tkm for ammonia, and EUR 67.44/1000 tkm for e-diesel. Hydrogen exceeded diesel in exergy efficiency in 96.50% of the paired simulation samples; all three electrofuel pathways were costlier than diesel in every paired simulation sample, whereas B100 was cheaper than diesel in 35.62% of the paired simulation samples. Thus, hydrogen led in exergy efficiency, diesel in cost under the defined partial economic boundary, and B100 was the closest cost competitor. These are conditional model-screening results rather than a completed comparative life-cycle assessment: no quantitative life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA), environmental ranking or marginal abatement cost result is reported.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2026Energy, exergy and exergoeconomic analysis of a CI engine fuelled with waste frying oil biodiesel blended with waste tyre pyrolysis oil and higher alcohols (Heptanol and Octanol): A waste-to-energy approach
Gülcan, Halil Erdi; Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat; Erol, Derviş; Tunçer, Erdal
This study evaluates a waste-to-energy diesel concept that co-valorises waste cooking oil and end-of-life tyres by formulating biodiesel–tyre pyrolysis oil blends with small additions of higher alcohols (1-heptanol and n-octanol). Five fuels (B100, B90T10, B85T10H5, B85T10O5 and B80T10H5O5) were tested in a single-cylinder diesel engine. Engine performance, emissions and combined energy–exergy–exergoeconomic indicators were used to assess thermodynamic and economic viability. The quaternary blend B80T10H5O5 achieved the highest mean energy and exergy efficiencies (26.5 % and 24.6 %) and reduced brake-specific fuel consumption by about 5 % relative to neat biodiesel, owing to improved volatility and fuel oxygenation. This benefit was accompanied by higher NOx emissions and the largest specific exergy cost (≈1430 USD GJ−1) at full load. By contrast, the binary blend B90T10 preserved biodiesel-like efficiency while lowering the specific exergy cost of shaft power by roughly 10 %, emerging as the most cost-effective option. Overall, modest shares of tyre pyrolysis oil (10 %) and long-chain alcohols (≤5 %) in waste-oil biodiesel can provide an attractive compromise between energy efficiency, emissions and exergy-based cost, supporting circular-economy-oriented diesel combustion.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2025Sakaltutan Geçidi Yerine Önerilen Eğimsiz Tünelin Emisyon, Yakıt Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Analizi
Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat
Bu çalışma, D-100/E-80 üzerindeki 13 km’lik Sakaltutan Geçidi yerine 11,1 km, %0 eğimli bir tünelin çevresel ve ekonomik etkilerini nicel olarak değerlendirmektedir. COPERT 5.8.1 ile 5196 araçlık filo için hız, eğim, soğuk başlatma ve iklim çarpanları kullanılmış; ±%15 genişletilmiş belirsizlik ve 10000 yinelemeli Monte Carlo analizi uygulanmıştır. Tünel senaryosu yakıt tüketimini günde 5041 L (−%34) ve CO2’yi 12,9 t gün-1 (≈4700 t yıl-1) azaltır; NOx emisyonunda −%23, PM’de −%37 düşüş sağlar. Toplam yolculuk süresi 211 saat gün-1 azalır ve ekonomik fayda ≈108 milyon TL yıl-1’dır; karbonun parasal değeri eklendiğinde toplam ≈126,8 milyon TL yıl-1’a çıkar. Net tasarruf olasılığı %99,4’tür. Benzer tünel LCA’larıyla karşılaştırılan yapım aşaması gömülü emisyonları 105 t CO2-eş. mertebesindedir; karbon geri ödeme süresi ≈10–20 yıl olarak öngörülür. Yatırım gideri dâhil basit geri ödeme, varsayılan yatırım gideri (CAPEX)’e bağlı olarak ≈24–39 yıl aralığındadır. Sonuçlar, özellikle ağır hizmet araçları kaynaklı kazanımların belirgin olduğunu ve tünelin iklim/ekonomi açısından güçlü bir seçenek sunduğunu göstermektedir.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2025Performance, Emissions and Enviroeconomic Assessment of Diesel–Waste Tyre Pyrolysis Oil–n-Butanol Blends in a Single-Cylinder Engine
Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat; Erol, Derviş; Gülcan, Halil Erdi
This study evaluates the performance, emissions and enviroeconomic implications of diesel–waste tyre pyrolysis oil (WTPO)–butanol blends in a single-cylinder, direct-injection diesel engine operated at 1500 rpm across 10–50 Nm. Five fuels were tested: neat diesel (D100), D90T10, D80T20, D80T10B10 and D60T20B20. Relative to D100, oxygenated blends incurred a modest fuel-consumption penalty (peak ≈ +8% BSFC), yet delivered pronounced reductions in incomplete-combustion products: carbon monoxide fell by about 50% at high load with D60T20B20. WTPO-only mixtures increased unburned hydrocarbons, whereas adding 10% butanol suppressed HC. Conversely, nitrogen oxides rose by roughly 15–45%, highest for D60T20B20, while tailpipe CO2 decreased slightly (≈4% at 50 Nm). A simple carbon-pricing lens (€70 t-1 CO₂) indicated a ~4% lower carbon-cost component for D60T20B20 than D100 at high load. Considering these trade-offs, D80T10B10 emerges as the most pragmatic configuration, balancing efficiency with air-quality benefits and moderating the NOx rise. The results support partial substitution of diesel by WTPO and butanol where NOx control (e.g., EGR or calibration) is feasible, coupling local pollutant mitigation with incremental decarbonisation and modest cost gains.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2025Investigation of the combined use of diesel and CNG fuels on an HCCI engine using Response Surface Methodology (RSM)
Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat; Çınar, Can; Kocakulak, Tolga
In this study, the effects of the combined use of diesel and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) fuels on the performance, combustion and emissions were experimentally and statistically investigated in a Homogeneous Charged Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine. Diesel and CNG fuels were used at different ratios between 0% and 80% by mass, and tests were conducted at different engine loads. The experimental procedure was designed using the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) composite central design method. The experimental data were analyzed using MATLAB and entered into the RSM. In order to determine the response parameters predictably, model equations were created, counter graphs were drawn and optimization was carried out. Engine load and CNG ratio, which are the optimum input parameters, were determined as 68.36% and 2.864%, respectively. The response parameter values were obtained as 4.487 bar for Indicated Mean Effective Pressure (IMEP), 39.3% for Indicated Thermal Efficiency (ITE), 255.5 g/kWh for Brake Specific Fuel Consumption (BSFC), 3.343% for Coefficient of Variation of Indicated Mean Effective Pressure (COVIMEP), 0.247% for CO, 191.566 ppm for HC, 579.538 ppm for NOx and 1.393 m-1 for smoke. This study, in which a combined diesel and CNG fueled engine operating in HCCI combustion mode is examined with experimental and statistical methods, will fill an important gap in the literature and provide researchers with a new perspective.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2025Integrated Emission and Cost Analysis of Battery-Electric Vehicles up to 2035
Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat
This study quantifies when battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) reach total cost of ownership (TCO) parity with their internal-com-bustion counterparts and characterises the cradle-to-grave greenhouse-gas (GHG) intensity trajectory to 2035. Our contribution is a transparent, Python-based framework that integrates battery-cost learning, ownership economics and life-cycle impacts within a harmonised scenario set, and links them to policy timing, ISO 15118-20-ready bidirectional charging and power-system carbon intensity. Drawing on a systematic synthesis of 221 peer-reviewed sources (2013–2025), the model runs annually for a representa-tive C-segment BEV across three scenarios (Reference, Fast-Progress, Slow-Progress; 2024–2035). The results indicate that, under the median battery-pack price learning trajectory, BEV TCO falls below the ICE benchmark around 2029 (2028–2032 across sce-narios), while life-cycle GHG intensity declines from approximately 73 to 34 g CO2-eq km-1 by 2035, spanning 29–42 g km-1 depending on grid decarbonisation. Global sensitivity analysis identifies battery price as the principal driver of TCO outcomes and grid carbon intensity as the principal driver of emissions outcomes. Results are reported for three regional aggregates (OECD average, EU-27 and China), and the policy discussion highlights contrasts for the United States to contextualise cross-market dif-ferences. Policy alignment on three fronts—parity-linked purchase-incentive phase-outs, rapid deployment of ISO 15118-20-ready bidirectional charging, and stronger recycled-content targets—shortens time to cost competitiveness and amplifies the climate ben-efits of large-scale electrification.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - Review ArticleAçık Erişim2024Wastes in Automotive Maintenance Businesses, Its Effects on Employees and Precautions
Çetin, Murat; Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat
This study offers an exhaustive analysis of the emissions and waste produced by vehicle maintenance and repair activities, underscoring their detrimental impacts on the health and ergonomic conditions of service workers. It underscores the critical need for the implementation of straightforward yet effective measures to mitigate these adverse effects. The paper delineates a variety of strategies aimed at enhancing the well-being of maintenance personnel by minimizing their exposure to harmful substances and improving workplace ergonomics. Heightened environmental awareness has positively influenced research on waste disposal methods. Implementing environmentally friendly waste and emission disposal methods in automotive maintenance is projected to reduce costs for mechanics and operators. Furthermore, the study elaborated on the comprehensive processes undertaken in automotive maintenance facilities, detailing the journey of waste from its origin to its final disposal. Effective management of these processes provides significant environmental and economic benefits. Additionally, the study presents a series of evidence-based recommendations designed to cultivate a safer and healthier working environment for automotive service professionals. These recommendations aim to improve overall working conditions in the industry by contributing to the enhancement of occupational health and safety standards. Through these measures, the research advocates for a comprehensive approach to occupational health within the automotive repair industry.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2016Erzincan'da Doğal Gaz Kullanımının Hava Kalitesine Etkisi
Demirci, Oğuz Kürşat; Cetin, Murat
Hava kirliliği dünyanın ortak problemidir, tüm canlıları direkt veya dolaylı olarak olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Erzincan'da kış aylarında genel olarak ısınma amacıyla kalitesiz kömür kullanılması ve olumsuz iklim faktörleri sonucu 2000'li yıllarda hava kirliliğinde artış başlamıştır. Şehir yapılanması düzenli olmasına rağmen, şehrin bir ova içinde kurulu olması ve inversiyon tabakasının düşüklüğü, özellikle kış aylarında ısınmadan kaynaklanan hava kirliliğini yüksek değerlere ulaştırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada; Erzincan'da ısınma amaçlı fosil yakıt (genelde kömür) kullanımından bir diğer fosil yakıt olan doğal gaza geçiş ile birlikte hava kirlilik parametrelerindeki değişim incelenmiştir. Erzincan kent merkezinde; son 8 yıl içinde ısınma amaçlı doğal gaz kullanımı, doğal gaz kullanımının getirdiği avantajlar ile hava kirliliği üzerindeki olumlu yönde değişim ve hava kalitesindeki iyileşmeler baz alınmıştır. Doğal gaz kullanımı ile hava kirliliğinde azalma olduğu, SO2 ve PM değerlerinin önceki yıllara göre ciddi düzeyde düştüğü tespit edilmiştir
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