A Novel Biomarker-Based Decision Support System for Pediatric Appendicitis Diagnosis: A Comparative Study of Ensemble Models Algorithms

Introduction: Acute appendicitis is the commonest cause of surgical abdominal pain, yet diagnosis in children remains challenging; delays increase the risk of perforation, peritonitis and sepsis. We sought to develop a rapid, inexpensive and interpretable clinical-decision support system (CDSS) that leverages routine blood tests (RBT) to assist early paediatric triage. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective single-centre study (January 2020–December 2024) we analysed 275 emergency-department encounters for abdominal pain (75 histology-confirmed appendicitis, 200 controls). The six-stage pipeline comprised (1) cohort selection; (2) exploratory logistic-regression screening of RBT variables; (3) training of Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and LightGBM ensembles (with/without SMOTE) under 10 × 10 stratified cross-validation; (4) SHAP-based feature interpretation; (5) exhaustive generation of every two- and three-parameter arithmetic biomarker from seven RBT features; and (6) derivation of probability-threshold curves and a three-zone rule tree for the top biomarker. Performance was reported with accuracy (ACC), Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), AUC-ROC, sensitivity, specificity, F1-Score PPV and NPV. Results: Logistic regression and SHAP confirmed CRP, WBC and neutrophil count as strong positive predictors, whereas MPV and PDW were protective; PLT remained non-informative. All three ensemble classifiers surpassed 97% accuracy, 98% AUC-ROC and 0.93 MCC, with no gain from SMOTE. An extensive formula search, the best two-parameter marker was Neutrophil ÷ PDW (MCC = 0.73, specificity 95%). Its ensemble curve crosses P = 0.5 five times; practical cut-offs of < 0.633 (strongly indicate healthy) and > 0.794 (strongly indicate appendicitis) retain high NPV (∼91%) and PPV (∼86%). Among triple formulas that do not rely on PLT, the leading biomarker was CRP+WBC+Neutrophil (MCC = 0.85, PPV 92%, NPV 95%). The ensemble curve intersects at P = 0.5 at three points; values >27 strongly predict appendicitis, <23 indicates a healthy state, and values 23–27 leave a small uncertain band. A rule-based CDSS built on these two biomarkers correctly classified all controls (specificity 100%), sensitivity 95%, achieved 91% overall accuracy, and offers interpretable, electronic health records (EHRs)-ready cut-offs for paediatric appendicitis triage. Conclusion: Routine haematology-biochemistry data, interpreted through ensemble learning and engineered biomarkers, can deliver fast, transparent and highly accurate support for paediatric appendicitis triage. Given its zero false-positive rate, the proposed CDSS is best suited to in-hospital monitoring, where minimising false negatives is critical. Prospective multi-centre validation is warranted. © 2025 AGBM