Modeling Propagation of Tactical Altitude Interventions for Contrail Avoidance in a Socio-Technical Air Traffic System

Air traffic control is a complex socio-technical system in which human operators, automation, and procedures interact within structured airspace. Local operational interventions can propagate non-linearly through traffic flows and coordination networks. Contrail mitigation requires altitude adjustments in dense airspace, yet limited attention has been paid to how vertical perturbations interact with traffic structures and cross-boundary coordination constraints. This study employs a human-in-the-loop simulation platform based on ESCAPE Light to examine system responses to contrail mitigation in a high-density Asian Flight Information Region. Altitude changes are treated as localized perturbations imposed on sequenced traffic with coordination logic. Three configurations were examined: baseline operations, tactical adjustments, and strategic mitigation. Rather than relying on subjective workload assessments, the analysis focuses on structural indicators including altitude-change events. Results show tactical interventions amplify coordination demand and trigger secondary flow adjustments beyond affected aircraft, whereas strategically planned adjustments produce fewer disruptions. These findings illustrate how human-in-the-loop simulation reveals perturbation propagation and adaptive dynamics in dense air traffic systems. © 2026 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.