The Environmental Phillips Curve hypothesis for Russia: The Relationship between the Levels of Environmental Pollution and Unemployment

The environmental Phillips curve hypothesis reveals a negative relationship between unemployment and environmental pollution. In this study, we examined whether the environmental Phillips curve hypothesis is valid for Russia. In the analysis covering the period 1992-2022, Fourier Augmented ARDL approach was applied. CO2 emissions, which are used as an environmental pollution indicator, are the dependent variable of the model. The independent variables are the unemployment rate, economic growth, total energy supply and urbanization rate. According to the results of the analysis, there is a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and environmental pollution in Russia. This result demonstrates that the environmental Phillips curve hypothesis is valid in Russia. Moreover, it was found that the increase in economic growth reduces environmental pollution. The effects of the total energy supply and urbanization on environmental pollution are positive. However, the effect of the urbanization rate on environmental pollution is statistically insignificant. Russia should harmonize its employment policies and environmental policies with each other. The share of renewable energy use and total energy supply should be increased, and green job policies should be established. By increasing employment opportunities in sectors that use environmentally friendly technologies, Russia can reduce environmental pollution without suffering high unemployment rates.