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- ArticleAçık Erişim2026Climatic Variables as Drivers of Pterocarpus erinaceus (Fabaceae): Distribution and the Implications of Climate Change
Sari, İdris; Ismael, Bio; Ullah, Fazal; Agoundé, Gafarou; Yildiz, Faruk
Pterocarpus erinaceus is an ecologically and economically important tree species native to the Sahel region of West Africa, facing severe threats due to overexploitation, habitat degradation, and climate change. This study assesses the impact of key climatic variables on the species' current distribution and projects potential range shifts across Africa under mid-21st century climate scenarios. Using an ensemble modeling approach that combines various algorithms and utilizes 37 comprehensive climatic variables, the analysis revealed significant patterns of highly suitable habitat, concentrated primarily in West Africa. Projections under low and medium emission scenarios for 2040–2060 and 2080–2100 periods predict a reduction in climatically unsuitable areas and a potential expansion of suitable habitats, suggesting that the species may be somewhat resilient to medium-term climate changes. The primary climatic factors limiting the species' distribution were identified as the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter and the Climatic Moisture Index. These results underscore the species' ecophysiological dependence on specific temperature and moisture regimes. Crucially, while our projections suggest the species exhibits resilience and potential habitat expansion under medium-term climate change, its realization is contingent upon mitigating persistent anthropogenic pressures. Therefore, to ensure the species' long-term persistence and maintain the ecological integrity of the West African Savanna Biome, conservation strategies must prioritize aggressive, in situ actions focused on sustainable management, controlled harvesting, and the protection of current and future suitable habitats, rather than focusing solely on long-term climate change adaptation measures.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2024Past, present, and future potential distributions of the African multipurpose tree Detarium senegalense (Fabaceae)
Dassou, Gbèwonmèdéa Hospice; Agoundé, Gafarou; Akouété, Pathmos; Favi, Gnimansou Abraham; Kpétikou, Ghyslain Chabi; Salako, Kolawolé Valère; Ouachinou, Jéronime Marie-Ange Sènami; Makponsè, Judicael; Kouyaté, Amadou Malé; Sari, İdris
Background and aims – Climate change induces increasing temperatures and drought, with possible profound shifts in species’ presence and distribution. Ecological niche models are widely used to assess plant species responses to climate change. However, such data are scarce for West Africa, particularly for vulnerable multipurpose species. This study focuses on modelling the ecological niche and the conservation status of the multipurpose tree Detarium senegalense to improve insights into its habitat suitability in West Africa under past, present, and future climatic conditions. This will provide an essential basis for setting up global management plans through efficient conservation and ecological restoration policies. Material and methods – The potential distribution of D. senegalense under past, current, and future climate scenarios were assessed using four algorithms including generalized additive models (GAM), generalized linear models (GLM), random forest (RF), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). We also assessed the shift direction of suitable habitats and the conservation status of the species based on IUCN criteria. Overall, 220 occurrences were combined with a set of five bioclimatic variables to run the models. Key results – Models performed well with good values of AUC (0.92) and TSS (0.73). Isothermality (41.10%) and Precipitation of Wettest Month (21.50%) contributed most to the distribution of the species. The distribution of D. senegalense was relatively constant from the past to the present but could decrease in the next decades. In the future, only 17.70% and 13.98% of the areas were predicted to be suitable under respectively ssp245 and ssp585. In protected areas, the suitable areas under ssp245 were estimated at 21.01% with a decrease of 2.50% and 14.60% with a decrease of 8.61% under ssp585 by 2050. The direction of the distribution shifted to the south-east under future climate scenarios. The conservation status assessment of the species is Least Concern (LC). Conclusion – This study improves our understanding of the past, present-day, and future distribution of the species and provides support to better manage the conservation of D. senegalense in West Africa.
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