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- ArticleAçık Erişim2026Climatic Variables as Drivers of Pterocarpus erinaceus (Fabaceae): Distribution and the Implications of Climate Change
Sari, İdris; Ismael, Bio; Ullah, Fazal; Agoundé, Gafarou; Yildiz, Faruk
Pterocarpus erinaceus is an ecologically and economically important tree species native to the Sahel region of West Africa, facing severe threats due to overexploitation, habitat degradation, and climate change. This study assesses the impact of key climatic variables on the species' current distribution and projects potential range shifts across Africa under mid-21st century climate scenarios. Using an ensemble modeling approach that combines various algorithms and utilizes 37 comprehensive climatic variables, the analysis revealed significant patterns of highly suitable habitat, concentrated primarily in West Africa. Projections under low and medium emission scenarios for 2040–2060 and 2080–2100 periods predict a reduction in climatically unsuitable areas and a potential expansion of suitable habitats, suggesting that the species may be somewhat resilient to medium-term climate changes. The primary climatic factors limiting the species' distribution were identified as the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter and the Climatic Moisture Index. These results underscore the species' ecophysiological dependence on specific temperature and moisture regimes. Crucially, while our projections suggest the species exhibits resilience and potential habitat expansion under medium-term climate change, its realization is contingent upon mitigating persistent anthropogenic pressures. Therefore, to ensure the species' long-term persistence and maintain the ecological integrity of the West African Savanna Biome, conservation strategies must prioritize aggressive, in situ actions focused on sustainable management, controlled harvesting, and the protection of current and future suitable habitats, rather than focusing solely on long-term climate change adaptation measures.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2026Future Climate Change and Bioclimatic Suitability of Two Endemic Balkan Water Frogs
Papežík, Petr; Rusinko, Adam; Sari, İdris; Mikulíček, Peter; Brus, Jan; Benovics, Michal; Iannella, Mattia
Aim: To evaluate the impacts of future climate change on the bioclimatic suitability of two endemic water frogs of the southwestern Balkans, focusing on species- and lineage-level responses and implications for conservation. Location: Southwestern Balkans, including Albania, Greece and Montenegro. Methods: We applied an ensemble bioclimatic suitability modelling framework based on multiple algorithms, using selected bioclimatic predictors to estimate current suitability and to project future distributions under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Intraspecific patterns were assessed by integrating mitochondrial lineage data to evaluate stability for both species and lineage levels. Results: Both species are predicted to experience an overall decline in bioclimatic suitability under future climate scenarios, indicating broadly similar responses to climate change. However, the magnitude of these changes differs substantially. Pelophylax shqipericus is predicted to undergo more pronounced range contraction and fragmentation, whereas P. epeiroticus shows relatively higher spatial persistence, with suitable areas remaining primarily in lowland coastal regions. Lineage-level analyses reveal uneven patterns of vulnerability, with greater losses generally affecting phylogenetic lineages occupying more restricted or environmentally sensitive parts of the range. Main Conclusions: Regardless of the differences in their realized bioclimatic niches, both species respond in a similar direction to projected climate change. This suggests that shared climatic constraints outweigh niche differentiation in shaping future distributions. However, differences in the magnitude of response highlight species-specific and lineage-specific sensitivity to environmental change. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating intraspecific diversity into climate vulnerability assessments and conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2024Past, present, and future potential distributions of the African multipurpose tree Detarium senegalense (Fabaceae)
Dassou, Gbèwonmèdéa Hospice; Agoundé, Gafarou; Akouété, Pathmos; Favi, Gnimansou Abraham; Kpétikou, Ghyslain Chabi; Salako, Kolawolé Valère; Ouachinou, Jéronime Marie-Ange Sènami; Makponsè, Judicael; Kouyaté, Amadou Malé; Sari, İdris
Background and aims – Climate change induces increasing temperatures and drought, with possible profound shifts in species’ presence and distribution. Ecological niche models are widely used to assess plant species responses to climate change. However, such data are scarce for West Africa, particularly for vulnerable multipurpose species. This study focuses on modelling the ecological niche and the conservation status of the multipurpose tree Detarium senegalense to improve insights into its habitat suitability in West Africa under past, present, and future climatic conditions. This will provide an essential basis for setting up global management plans through efficient conservation and ecological restoration policies. Material and methods – The potential distribution of D. senegalense under past, current, and future climate scenarios were assessed using four algorithms including generalized additive models (GAM), generalized linear models (GLM), random forest (RF), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). We also assessed the shift direction of suitable habitats and the conservation status of the species based on IUCN criteria. Overall, 220 occurrences were combined with a set of five bioclimatic variables to run the models. Key results – Models performed well with good values of AUC (0.92) and TSS (0.73). Isothermality (41.10%) and Precipitation of Wettest Month (21.50%) contributed most to the distribution of the species. The distribution of D. senegalense was relatively constant from the past to the present but could decrease in the next decades. In the future, only 17.70% and 13.98% of the areas were predicted to be suitable under respectively ssp245 and ssp585. In protected areas, the suitable areas under ssp245 were estimated at 21.01% with a decrease of 2.50% and 14.60% with a decrease of 8.61% under ssp585 by 2050. The direction of the distribution shifted to the south-east under future climate scenarios. The conservation status assessment of the species is Least Concern (LC). Conclusion – This study improves our understanding of the past, present-day, and future distribution of the species and provides support to better manage the conservation of D. senegalense in West Africa.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2022Macro-Morphological and Ecological Variation in Rosa sericea Complex
Ullah, Fazal; Gao, Yundong; Sari, İdris; Jiao, Ruifang; Saqib, Saddam; Gao, Xinfen
Taxon delimitation and identification are important in many areas of biology, especially in taxonomy and conservation. Taxonomic treatment is required to establish and justify recommendations in conservation biology for the group being considered. Imperfect and controversial taxonomy can undermine conservation assessment. We studied 71 populations; 665 individuals corresponding to the morphology of the Rosa sericea complex (including six taxa, one of which has extremely narrow distributions) were collected from sympatric, parapatric, and allopatric populations distributed in China. This study aims to investigate whether the complex species are macromorpho-logically different species and evaluate the rare taxa of the complex for conservation priority. The morphological characters and principal component analysis (PCA) of the R. sericea complex showed that the complex species have overlapping characters but can distinguish morphologically. The species of R. sericea complex systematics status based on previous DNA sequencing is controversial. The ecological habitat’s current morphological characters only delimit the R. morrisonensis (in Taiwan). To evade mistakes in species conservation, we recommend that taxonomical knowledge be needed to ensure success in protecting target species. Thus, the complementarity of systemic and conservation assurance makes conservation actions more necessary for the complex’s rare taxa. The ecological niche modelling (ENM) results showed that habitats of these conspecific taxa would be shrunken. With the presence of snapshots in time, the geography of taxa might decrease rapidly in representative entirely of the Geographic space (G-space) and Environmental space (E-space) that such taxa are bright to inhabit. So far, the significant inferences meant for the niche occupy the most incredible comparative research, taking the impermanent nature of taxa distributions and undertaking that such species are at a state of stability. If the artificially identified species (rarely distributed) are based on morphological identification, they must be conserved.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2020Will ferulago glareosa kandemir and hedge (Apiaceae) be extinct in the near future?
Sari, İdris; Kandemir, Ali
Turkey is one of the most important temperate countries on Earth in terms of plant diversity. There is a growing interest in understanding habitat suitability and future distributions of species in the scientific world. Because climate change has impacted ecosystems with major consequences, species are shifting and declining much faster than in the past. Some global climate models used for predicting climate in the future better represent and have higher reliability for some climate types. Ferulago glareosa, which lives in Turkey, is a rare endemic plant species. In this study, we investigated current and future distributions of the species determined to be habitat-specific to lead to future studies on conservation. The Maxent model was used to map the current and future potential distribution of the species for Turkey. HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR global climate models based on predicted future suitability of F. glareosa for 2050 and 2070 were examined. Models were constructed based on 20 presence points of the species and 2 abiotic variables. The current species distribution modeling of Ferulago glareosa predicted by the model produced very high success rates with training and test AUC values of 0.970 and 0.968, respectively. The true skill statistics value of the model (0.8245) indicated excellent model performance. In the end, we have demonstrated how predictions obtained from a highly reliable global climate model for a region’s climate could provide more dependable insights into the future distribution of narrow-spread endemic species.
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