Güney, tiler Sigeze; Kaya, Zeynep; Balli, Esra

This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of poverty in Turkey by incorporating household charac teristics with regional indicators using 2024 data using a multilevel mixed effects model. Relative poverty, defined as 60% of the median equivalised household disposable income, serves as the dependent variable. Considering the hierarchical structure of the data, the determinants of poverty status were examined employing a two level generalised mixed effect logistic regression model, accounting for the nesting of households within NUTS 2 regions. The findings reveal that poverty cannot be explained solely by householdlevelvulnerabilities; the regional economic environment also significantly shapes poverty outcomes. Also, education is determined as the most security measure; having a university degree decreases poverty risk by 42.6%. Across regions, resources must be directed towards GDP growth and infrastructure to mitigate spatial disparities by integrating household level microdata with regional macro indicators. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the spatial and key structural factors behind poverty in Turkey. Policymakers should prioritise opportunities to pursue higher education and vocational training at the household level.

Catik, A. Nazif; Balli, Esra; Akdeniz, Coskun; Cobanoglu, Cihan; Helmi, Mohamad Husam

This article examines the impact of tourism activities, economic growth, and energy demand on environmental degradation in Turkey using Primiceri's (2005) time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model for the period 1991:Q1 to 2020:Q1. The findings from the linear VAR model indicate that the response of carbon emissions to shocks in tourism activity is negative and significant. However, the time-varying responses show that the impact of tourism activities on environmental degradation varies over time but is not significant for most analysis period. The insignificant impact of tourism on carbon emissions implies that the tourism sector can be supported by policymakers without harming the environment. Furthermore, our findings on the positive and significant time- varying impact of tourism activities on economic growth support the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Ece, Oguzhan; Çadirci, Bulent Diclehan

The development of cryptographic digital markets and the growing number of investors have generated concernsabout the formation of price bubbles. We can describe the formation of a price bubble as a manifestation of thepricing paradox, characterised by an increase in an asset's value beyond its intrinsic worth. Investor sensitivity andemotional responses, disequilibrium in supply and demand, speculation and irrational investor behaviour, excessivevolatility, and uncertainty nourish this paradoxical tendency. Examining balloon formations in these markets offersvaluable insights for educating investors about market cycles and risk management, which can aid policymakersin preserving market stability and protecting financial systems. The objective of this study, which examines thephenomenon of price bubbles in digital asset markets, is to ascertain whether these bubbles are unique to the digitalasset market or whether they have a broader economic origin. The objective is to identify, establish the stabilityof, and facilitate the prediction of price developments, with a particular focus on the potential for market crashes.The GSADF methodology examined 18 digital assets in total, including CCC, NFT, and DeFI, for price bubble formationin this context. The digital assets analysed in this study were selected based on their market representativeness,as evidenced by 200 weeks of observation data covering the period from October 5, 2020, to July 29, 2024. Theanalysis yielded two key findings: the existence of asset-specific and market-induced bubbles and the observationthat different markets exhibit common risk sensitivity. Additionally, the movements of highly liquid digital assets(BTC, etc.) may serve as an indicator of impending market crashes due to their high correlation with other markets.The current body of research on cryptoassets tends to focus on traditional assets and relationships between binaryor restricted asset groups, leaving this study poised to make a significant and comprehensive contribution to theexisting literature on this subject

Ece, Oguzhan; Çadirci, Bulent Diclehan

In this study, the effect of loan portfolio concentration on financial stability and performance was investigated in both conventional and Islamic banking systems. In the study examining the period of 2005-January and 2021-December, the long and short-term effects of credit portfolio concentration on financial stability and performance in the bilateral banking system were analyzed by cointegration tests. According to the empirical results, in which ARDL method for the conventional banking system and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) methods for the Islamic banking system were used, it has been found that the diversification of the loan portfolio reduces the bankruptcy risk in the conventional banking system in the long run and it has both positive and negative lagged effects in the short run. In the Islamic banking system, while there is no relationship between this diversification and financial stability in the long run, it has been concluded that it increases the risk of bankruptcy in the short run. When evaluated in terms of banking performance, it is seen that loan portfolio diversification does not cause a serious effect in the long or short term and does not cause differentiation within the bilateral banking system

Saka Ilgin, Kubra

The literature on economics and finance accepts uncertainty as an important factor affecting investor behavior. As a reflection of what is expected from countries' economies, economic policy uncertainty indices were developed based on the USA economy and then were diversified for different countries and formed based on the news. Economic policy uncertainty can be a guide for stock market investors in estimating stock returns, in line with the effects cash flows have on stock returns. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and stock market indices. The study investigates the relationship between the data Europe's leading stock markets indices and these countries' national economic policy uncertainty indices within the scope of panel data analyses using the panel autoregressive distributed lag model/pooled mean group estimator (ARDL/PMG). The five European countries examined in this direction are; Germany, Italy, England, France, and Spain. A panel data-set was created using these countries' national economic policy uncertainty indices for the December 2002-October 2021 period and benchmark stock market indices' closing prices. According to the research results, significant short-term and long-term negative relationships have been determined to exist between the indices of Europe's leading stock markets and the respective economic policy uncertainty indices for the whole panel. The short-term correlation coefficients per country; show a significant negative relationship to exist between economic policy uncertainty and stock market index prices for all examined countries. In line with the findings obtained from the study; the national economic policy uncertainty indices in European countries can be said to be leading indicators for guiding investors in estimating stock market returns.