Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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- ArticleAçık Erişim2026Multilevel Determinants of Household Poverty: A Mixed Effects Logistic Regression Analysis
Güney, tiler Sigeze; Kaya, Zeynep; Balli, Esra
This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of poverty in Turkey by incorporating household charac teristics with regional indicators using 2024 data using a multilevel mixed effects model. Relative poverty, defined as 60% of the median equivalised household disposable income, serves as the dependent variable. Considering the hierarchical structure of the data, the determinants of poverty status were examined employing a two level generalised mixed effect logistic regression model, accounting for the nesting of households within NUTS 2 regions. The findings reveal that poverty cannot be explained solely by householdlevelvulnerabilities; the regional economic environment also significantly shapes poverty outcomes. Also, education is determined as the most security measure; having a university degree decreases poverty risk by 42.6%. Across regions, resources must be directed towards GDP growth and infrastructure to mitigate spatial disparities by integrating household level microdata with regional macro indicators. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the spatial and key structural factors behind poverty in Turkey. Policymakers should prioritise opportunities to pursue higher education and vocational training at the household level.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2026The role of air transportation on CO2 emissions in BRICS countries: Novel findings from MMQR methodology
Gümüş Akar, Pınar; Balli, Esra; Manga, Müge; Çatik, Abdurrahman Nazif
This article examines the impact of air passenger and freight transportation, economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, and FDI on the CO2 emissions in BRICS countries for the 1993–2021 period, utilising panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) estimators and Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) methodologies. According to the findings, air passenger transportation, economic growth, energy consumption and FDI have a positive impact on CO2 emissions, while squared economic growth and trade openness have a negative impact. Findings indicate that air freight transportation has no statistically significant effect on CO2 emissions. According to the causality analysis, there is a bidirectional causality between air passenger-CO2 emissions and GDP-CO2 emissions. There is a unidirectional causality from air freight to CO2 emissions, from energy consumption to CO2 emissions and from CO2 emissions to trade openness.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2026Fighting against energy consumption risk by diversifying energy sources
Kuziboev, Bekhzod; Radulescu, Magdalena; Çatık, A. Nazif; Makhmudov, Samariddin; Balli, Esra; Allayarov, Sardor
Currently economic turbulence and geopolitical fluctuations are causing high prices and supply disruptions in energy markets. As a result, energy consumption risks are becoming more severe. Diversifying energy sources is one way to address these challenges. This study examines how energy source diversification influences energy consumption risk in 36 developed countries from 2000 to 2018, using Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) and Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) Models. The MMQR captures heterogeneous effects across various levels of energy consumption risk, offering insights into how diversification strategies differ in effectiveness across the risk distribution. The PTR Model identifies potential nonlinear relationships and regime-dependent effects based on economic development levels, enabling an analysis of how the diversification-risk relationship changes across different stages of economic advancement. These methods are well-suited for the non-normal distribution of variables and the potential structural breaks in the relationship between energy diversification and consumption risk. The findings align with theory, revealing that the effects of energy source diversification on energy consumption risk are negative across all quantiles, from 10 % to 90 %. Furthermore, PTR results reveal that energy source diversification reduces energy consumption risk in both the lower and upper regimes of economic development. The study's results provide valuable guidelines for policymakers.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2026Nonlinear effects of financial development on energy infrastructure: Insights from nonlinear panel models
Helmi, Mohamad Husam; Balli, Esra; Çatik, Abdurrahman Nazif; Kuziboev, Bekhzod; Ruzmetova, Maxbuba; Makhmudov, Samariddin
This study examines the impact of financial development on energy infrastructure needs in a sample of 85 countries over the period 2000–2023. The analysis combines linear panel estimators with advanced nonlinear methods, including Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), the Instrumental-Variable Partially Linear Functional-Coefficient model (IVPLFC), and the dose–response function. These methods allow us to examine heterogeneity, dynamic persistence, and nonlinear marginal effects. A key contribution of the study is the use of the Energy Infrastructure Needs index, which captures deficiencies across electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and storage, rather than relying on narrower traditional proxies. The results show that stronger financial development significantly reduces energy infrastructure needs. This effect is strongest at earlier stages of financial development, while diminishing marginal effects emerge as financial systems mature. The MMQR results reveal distributional differences across levels of energy infrastructure needs, while the IVPLFC and dose–response results confirm clear nonlinear effects. Overall, the findings show that financial development plays an important but uneven role in reducing energy infrastructure needs. Financially underdeveloped economies benefit most from expanding access to credit, strengthening banking intermediation, and improving liquidity, whereas more financially developed economies require complementary institutional and regulatory reforms to achieve further progress.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2025The Impact of Tourism Activities on Carbon Emissions: Evidence Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Model
Catik, A. Nazif; Balli, Esra; Akdeniz, Coskun; Cobanoglu, Cihan; Helmi, Mohamad Husam
This article examines the impact of tourism activities, economic growth, and energy demand on environmental degradation in Turkey using Primiceri's (2005) time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model for the period 1991:Q1 to 2020:Q1. The findings from the linear VAR model indicate that the response of carbon emissions to shocks in tourism activity is negative and significant. However, the time-varying responses show that the impact of tourism activities on environmental degradation varies over time but is not significant for most analysis period. The insignificant impact of tourism on carbon emissions implies that the tourism sector can be supported by policymakers without harming the environment. Furthermore, our findings on the positive and significant time- varying impact of tourism activities on economic growth support the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2025Assessing the influence of green innovation and environmental policy stringency on CO2 emissions in BRICS
Çetinkaya, Ozlem Akguc; Çatik, Abdurrahman Nazif; Balli, Esra; Manga, Muge; Destek, Mehmet Akif
This article examines the effect of environmental policy stringency and green innovation on CO2 emissions in the BRICS nations, using annual data from 1990 to 2019 utilizing panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators and Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). To this end, we estimate an equation in which CO2 emissions are explained by GDP, trade openness, nonrenewable and renewable energy consumption, the environmental stringency index, and green innovation, as measured by the number of patent applications for environmentally related inventions. FMOLS and DOLS results reveal that GDP, nonrenewable energy consumption, and trade openness have a positive effect on environmental pollution, whereas improvements in renewable energy consumption and environmental regulations lead to a drop in CO2 emissions. However, green innovation does not have a significant effect on CO2 emissions. MMQR estimates demonstrate that the GDP has a positive effect on CO2 emissions across all quantiles, suggesting that a higher degree of economic growth is associated with higher emissions. Based on findings, empirical evidence suggests that BRICS countries should follow the policies encouraging the reduction of nonrenewable energy consumption in the region without harming the development of the economy. Besides, policymakers should promote renewable energy consumption and enhance investment in green innovation to achieve sustainable development and environmental quality.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2025Time-varying dynamics of energy and sustainability uncertainty
Kuziboev, Bekhzod; Çatık, A.Nazif; Pícha, Kamil; Makhmudov, Samariddin; Matyakubova, Aziza; Balli, Esra
This article examines the link between energy-related uncertainty and sustainability uncertainty by utilizing monthly data from November 2002 to October 2022. To this aim, wavelet coherence and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methodologies are utilized. Wavelet coherence results uncover statistically significant long-term correlation between energy and sustainability uncertainties, particularly during periods of global economic crises. The time-varying responses reveal that the impact of energy-related uncertainty shocks is positive over the analysis period. The impacts of energy-related uncertainty are found to be more pronounced during the turbulent periods, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The time-varying impact of global economic activity on the sustainability uncertainty does not follow a stable trajectory, and it is not statistically significant. The time-varying impact of financial stress on the sustainability uncertainty is not stable, including both positive and negative effects over the analysis period. The results generally reveal the complex interconnections between energy markets, economic conditions, and sustainability issues. This evidence highlights the importance of policymakers taking these connections into account when formulating strategies for energy security and sustainable development, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2024The effects of financial development, trade and energy consumption on environmental degradation: Evidence from APEC countries
Balli, Esra; Çatik, Abdurrahman Nazif; Uğur, Mehmet Sedat; Sigeze, Ciler
This paper investigates the relationship among CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, and trade in APEC countries based on quarterly data from 1985:Q4 to 2020:Q4 utilizing the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). The results demonstrate that both GDP and energy consumption have a positive and statistically significant effect on CO2 emissions. However, this effect diminishes as the conditional quantile of CO2 increases. Additionally, the study reveals that financial development has a positive and significant impact on CO2 emissions, with its influence increasing at higher quantiles. The MMQR estimates suggest that increasing trade openness has led to improvements in environmental quality. Based on these findings, it is recommended that APEC countries implement environmentally friendly policies to achieve sustainable economic development in the region. Hence, it is essential for financial development, energy consumption, and trade openness policies to align with strategies aimed at reducing environmental degradation.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2024Time-varying Income and Price Elasticities of Oil Demand in OECD Countries
Helmi, Mohamad Husam; Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif; Bucak, Çağla; Balli, Esra; Akdeniz, Coşkun
This study examines the long-run income and price elasticities of oil demand in 21 OECD countries using quarterly data from 1980:Q1 to 2021:Q3. We find that oil demand is inelastic with respect to both income and prices at 0.117 and −0.179, respectively. The cointegration tests reveal instability in oil price elasticities over time. The time-varying panel data estimates support these findings, showing significant variations in elasticities influenced by oil market dynamics and global events. Income elasticities reached their highest levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, while price elasticities ranged from −0.396 to 0.275. Significantly, the sign of oil price elasticities shifted from negative to positive after 2015, contrary to the law of demand, probably because of declining oil prices during that period. The largest positive and statistically significant price elasticity occurred in early 2020, which can be attributed to the COVID-19-induced decline in oil prices. Overall, this analysis contributes to understanding oil demand dynamics and highlights the impact of economic and oil market factors on elasticities.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2023The relationship between FDI, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption in Asia-Pacific economic cooperation countries
Balli, Esra; Sigeze, Ciler; Ugur, Mehmet Sedat; Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif
This paper investigates the relationship between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and foreign direct investment for a sample of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Countries (APEC) countries from 1981:Q1 to 2021:Q1 employing panel data methodology. We identify cross-sectional dependence and hence utilize the cross-sectional augmented Dickey-Fuller panel unit root test for appropriate estimation. The cointegration test developed by Westerlund (2008) reveals a long-run equilibrium between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and foreign direct investment. Long-run parameter estimates based on Common Correlated Effect Mean Group indicate that an increase in FDI inflows has a negative impact on air quality, supporting the pollution haven hypothesis. The cointegration test results also show that the impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on CO2 emissions varies by country in the estimation sample. In contrast to the mixed evidence on the effects of other variables, the increase in energy consumption is positively and significantly affecting CO2 emissions in all APEC countries. Emirmahmutoglu and Kose Econ Model 28:870-876, (2011)’s panel causality test results show a bidirectional relationship between FDI and CO2 emissions in Japan. Furthermore, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and energy consumption in Australia, China, Japan, and Singapore. Overall, empirical evidence suggests that APEC countries should adhere to strict regulations and invest in environmental-friendly clean technologies to attract foreign direct investment.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2023Time-varying impact of income and fossil fuel consumption on CO2 emissions in India
Ugur, Mehmet Sedat; Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif; Sigeze, Ciler; Balli, Esra
This paper investigates the time-varying effects of fossil fuel consumption on CO2 emissions in India utilizing the time-varying cointegration test, allowing for multivariate long-run time-varying cointegration parameter developed by Bierens and Martins (2010) and the time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model developed by Primiceri (2005). The long-run time-varying coefficients reveal that GDP has a positive and increasing impact on CO2 emissions over time. Moreover, results confirm the polluting effects of all fossil fuels. Besides, the TVP-VAR model findings also demonstrate that changes in income and fossil fuel consumption have a positive and significant impact on environmental degradation. Coal is found to be the most polluting fuel, followed by oil consumption. Furthermore, the time-varying responses show that increased natural gas consumption has the least influence when compared to other fossil fuels on CO2 emissions.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2022TIME-VARYING LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES OF OIL DEMAND: EVIDENCE FROM AN EMERGING MARKET
Eleyan, Mohammed Abu; Çatik, Abdurrahman Nazif; Balli, Esra
This study estimates the elasticities of the time-varying oil demand function in Turkey. To this end, a time-varying cointegration (TVC) method is utilized that allows for smooth changes in parameters. The TVC findings indicate the variation in long-run parameters over time by rejecting the null hypothesis of time-invariant cointegration. Oil can be considered a necessary good based on inelastic income evidence because time-varying income parameters are statistically significant but inelastic for the majority of the estimation period. However, oil demand in Turkey appears to be unaffected by price fluctuations and is more responsive to changes in real economic activity. As a result, our findings suggest that regulating the price of oil products through the imposition of a consumption tax is not a viable way to reduce oil demand. Our findings emphasize the importance of developing policies that promote indigenous production and increase energy production from renewable sources.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - Book ChapterYalnız künye2021Innovation trends in the contemporary world: Technology - innovation systems and policies in selected countries
Balli, Esra; Tekeoglu, Muammer
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - Book ChapterYalnız künye2021Catching Up: Advanced and Falling Behind Countries
Balli, Esra; Tekeoglu, Muammer
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2021Time-varying impact of oil shocks on trade balances: Evidence using the TVP-VAR model
Balli, Esra; Nazif Çatık, Abdurrahman; Nugent, Jeffrey B.
This paper investigates the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on the current account balances of China and Russia for the period between the first quarter of 1993 and the third quarter of 2018 using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. To facilitate comprehension of the results and to anchor them in well-known events, this analysis focuses on two countries with different oil trade characteristics—Russia as an oil exporter and China as an oil importer. We find that identifying their sources plays an important role in understanding the impact of oil price shocks on trade balances. The results indicate that oil demand shocks have a much larger effect on trade balances and are more attributable to oil price shocks than oil supply shocks. Due to their different positions in the global oil market—one an oil exporter and the other, an oil importer—China's and Russia's individual responses differ substantially. In line with findings regarding impulse responses, the time-varying forecast error decompositions demonstrate that both oil supply and demand shocks have their greatest influence during and immediately after periods of crisis.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2020Fisher Hipotezinin Geçerliliğinin OECD Ülkeleri için Sınanması
Coşkun, Nuran; Balli, Esra
Bu çalışmada Fisher hipotezinin geçerliliği 15 OECD ve Avrupa Birliği (19 ülke) ülkesi için 2002-2017 aralığı esas alınarak sınanmıştır. Nominal faiz oranı ve tüketici fiyat endeksi ile hesaplananbeklenen enflasyon oranı serilerinin durağanlığı yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alan Bai ve Ng(2004) birim kök testi ile sınanmıştır. Daha sonra seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisiWesterlund (2008) tarafından önerilen test ile araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre ele alınandönem ve ülkeler için serilerin eşbütünleşik olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Son olarak beklenenenflasyon ve nominal faiz oranı arasındaki ilişki AMG (Augmented Mean Group) tahmincisi iletest edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre birden daha düşük bir katsayı elde edildiğinden zayıfFisher hipotezininin geçerli olduğunu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2020The Nonlinear Causal Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence for Turkey
Güney, Çıler Sıgeze; Coşkun, Nuran; Balli, Esra
The direction and magnitude of the relationship between international tourism and economic growth is one of the macroeconomic issues for policy makers. This study investigates the causal relationship between the tourist arrivals, tourism receipts and GDP per capita for Turkey taking into account non-linear relationships for the period of 1963-2016. The results show that there is a nonlinear causal relationship running from tourist arrivals to GDP per capita. Besides, we confirm bidirectional relationship between GDP per capita and tourism receipts in Turkey.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2020The relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Turkey: evidence from Fourier approximation
Balli, Esra; Nugent, Jeffrey B.; Coskun, Nuran; Sigeze, Ciler
Given that Turkey has recently committed itself for the first time to reducing its CO2 emissions in the interest of sustainable growth in not only Turkey but also the world as a whole, this paper examines the relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1960–2014. In view of the different findings concerning causality and the character of the relationships between these variables revealed in our review of past studies (in most cases using quite different methods), this paper utilizes several different but related methodological approaches for identifying causal relationships. These include both the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach, the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto for Cumulative Frequency approach developed by Nazlioglu et al. (2016), vector error correction model (VECM) methodology, and the asymmetric Granger causality test proposed by Hatemi-J (Empir Econ 43:447–456, Hatemi-j 2012). Our results show that, when we apply the popular Toda-Yamamoto model, causality in these relationships is not confirmed even among any of the relevant variables in Turkey. Yet, when the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto tests for cumulative frequency are employed, we find unidirectional causality running from GDP per capita to emissions of CO2 per capita. Moreover, when we utilize the VECM methodology, the results show that long-run causality exists from GDP per capita and energy to CO2 emissions. When we apply the asymmetric causality tests, the results provide even stronger evidence for a unidirectional causal relationship from GDP per capita to CO2 emissions. As a result, the latter sets of results, based on more realistic conditions, suggest very strongly that, if Turkey is to meet the objectives of its ambitious Climate Change Action Plan commitment to the United Nations to reduce its CO2 per capita emissions relative to its past trends by up to 21% over the coming 2021–2030 decade, it is going to get very serious about the best way to do this as soon as possible.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleYalnız künye2019Orta gelir tuzağı: türkiye üzerine ampirik bir analiz
Manga, Muge; Güreşçi, Gülçin; Balli, Esra
Ülkelerin bulundukları gelir düzeyleri ile ilişkili olan orta gelir tuzağı kavramı, genel olarak, ülkelerin belirli birdönem boyunca aynı gelir düzeyinde sıkışıp kalmasını ifade etmektedir. 1960’lı yıllarda üç haneli rakamlarla ifadeedilen orta gelirli ülke sayısının çok azının yüksek gelirli ülke statüsüne yükselmesi dolayısıyla önemli bir kavramolarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalış mada, Robertson ve Ye (2013)’nin orta gelir tuzağı önerisine göre, Türkiye’nin ortagelir tuzağında olup olmadığı test edilmektedir. Türkiye için orta gelir tuzağının değerlendirmesinin yapıldığı buçalışmada, Carrion-i Silvestre vd. (2009) tarafından ortaya atılan çoklu yapısal birim kök testinden faydalanılmıştır.Uygulanan birim kök testi sonuçları Türkiye orta gelir tuzağında olmadığını göstermektedir.
RDL Kalıcı Kaydıİncele - ArticleAçık Erişim2019An Investigation of the Hysteresis in Unemployment in EU Countries and Turkey with Fourier-KPSS Unit Root Test
Güney, Çıler Sıgeze; Coşkun, Nuran; Balli, Esra
The changes in the unemployment rate and its hysteria in some EU countries impose significant challengesto policy makers. To implement appropriate policies, it is important to examine whether the movement of the unemployment rates in the country is better corresponded by the unemployment hysteresis or by the natural rate hypothesis of unemployment. Therefore, this study examines the hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for European Union countries and Turkey for the period of 1991–2016. For the test we utilize Fourier- KPSS panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section dependency proposed by Nazlioglu and Karul (2017). The results reveal that unemployment hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected for the EU countries and Turkey except for Latvia, Belgium, Cyprus and Sweden.
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