ANALYSIS of BIST BANK INDEX with DATA BASED MODELS

Purpose: In the study, in order to determine the changes in the expectations of the investors and to\rmake the right decisions, the effect of Risk Appetite Index and VIX Fear Index, which are among the risk\rappetite indicators, on stock returns were tried to be predicted for the markets of our country.\rMethodology: The methods included in the research that support the theoretical part of the study are\rArtificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy\rInference System (ANFIS). Statistica and MATLAB package programs were used to apply the methods.\rFindings: As a result of the analysis, it has been revealed that the Risk Appetite Index and VIX Fear Index\rcan predict stock returns with acceptable accuracy. Thus, the decision makers and institutions can carry\rout their investments more efficiently.\rOriginality: Choosing the most accurate risk appetite indicator and using it in return estimates will\rcontribute to the efficiency of investors’ decisions. In this study, it is tried for the first time to estimate the\rrelationship between risk appetite indicators and return index for Turkey using data-based models.