Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation with BİST All and BİST Sectoral Indices

The purpose of this study is to determine the short and long-term relationships for the period of November 2009-December 2019, between exchange rate, interest rate and inflation, with five stock indices, which are traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange and have the highest trading volume. The analysis method used in the study is the ARDL bounds test. According to the obtained results; it is showed that the increase in the exchange rate decreased the stock indices in short and long run, these effects are only statistically significant in short run. It has been determined that the increase in interest rates in short and long run also caused a decrease in all examined indices. Relationship between interest rates and stock market indices is found to be statistically significant in the ISE All, ISE Financial and ISE Industrial indices in long run; and in the ISE Bank in short run. It has been determined that the increase in inflation in long run positively and in short run negatively affected all examined indexes. It is concluded that the long run relationship between inflation and ISE All, ISE Financial, ISE Services indices; and short run relationship of ISE All, ISE Financial, ISE Industrial indices are statistically significant. According to the shortterm analysis results; it has been determined that error correction coefficients were negative and statistically significant in all models.